Association between exposure to ambient air pollution, meteorological factors and atopic dermatitis consultations in Singapore-a stratified nationwide time-series analysis.

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic inflammatory skin disease affecting approximately 20% of children globally. While studies have been conducted elsewhere, air pollution and weather variability is not well studied in the tropics. This time-series study examines the association between air pollution and meteorological factors with the incidence of outpatient visits for AD obtained from the National Skin Centre (NSC) in Singapore. The total number of 1,440,844 consultation visits from the NSC from 2009 to 2019 was analysed. Using the distributed lag non-linear model and assuming a negative binomial distribution, the short-term temporal association between outpatient visits for AD and air quality and meteorological variability on a weekly time-scale were examined, while adjusting for long-term trends, seasonality and autocorrelation. The analysis was also stratified by gender and age to assess potential effect modification. The risk of AD consultation visits was 14% lower (RR10th percentile: 0.86, 95% CI 0.78-0.96) at the 10th percentile (11.9 µg/m3) of PM2.5 and 10% higher (RR90th percentile: 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.19) at the 90th percentile (24.4 µg/m3) compared to the median value (16.1 µg/m3). Similar results were observed for PM10 with lower risk at the 10th percentile and higher risk at the 90th percentile (RR10th percentile: 0.86, 95% CI 0.78-0.95, RR90th percentile: 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.19). For rainfall for values above the median, the risk of consultation visits was higher up to 7.4 mm in the PM2.5 model (RR74th percentile: 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.14) and up to 9 mm in the PM10 model (RR80th percentile: 1.12, 95% CI 1.00-1.25). This study found a close association between outpatient visits for AD with ambient particulate matter concentrations and rainfall. Seasonal variations in particulate matter and rainfall may be used to alert healthcare providers on the anticipated rise in AD cases and to time preventive measures to reduce the associated health burden.

Climate change and population health in Singapore: a systematic review.

Gaseous emissions have contributed to global warming, an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events and poorer air quality. The associated health impacts have been well reported in temperate regions. In Singapore, key climate change adaptation measures and activities include coastal and flood protection, and mitigating heat impacts. We systematically reviewed studies examining climate variability and air quality with population health in Singapore, a tropical city-state in South-East Asia (SEA), with the aim to identify evidence gaps for policymakers. We included 14 studies with respiratory illnesses, cardiovascular outcomes, foodborne disease and dengue. Absolute humidity (3 studies) and rainfall (2 studies) were positively associated with adverse health. Extreme heat (2 studies) was inversely associated with adverse health. The effects of mean ambient temperature and relative humidity on adverse health were inconsistent. Nitrogen dioxide and ozone were positively associated with adverse health. Climate variability and air quality may have disease-specific, differing directions of effect in Singapore. Additional high quality studies are required to strengthen the evidence for policymaking. Research on effective climate action advocacy and adaptation measures for community activities should be strengthened. Funding: There was no funding source for this study.

Association between the extension of smoke-free legislation and incident acute myocardial infarctions in Singapore from 2010 to 2019: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: We examined the association between smoke-free laws implemented in the outdoors and the common areas of residential apartment blocks and reported acute myocardial infarctions (AMI) in Singapore. METHODS: We used an interrupted time-series design and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models to examine the effect of the smoke-free law extensions in 2013 (common areas of residential blocks, covered pedestrian linkways, overhead bridges and within 5 m of bus stops), 2016 (parks) and 2017 (educational institutions, buses and taxis) on the monthly incidence rate of AMIs per 1 000 000 population. RESULTS: We included 133 868 AMI reports from January 2010 to December 2019. Post-2013, there was a decrease in the AMI incidence trend (ß=-0.6 per month, 95%CI -1.0 to -0.29) and 2097 (95% CI 2094 to 2100) more AMIs may have occurred without the extension. There was a significant step-decline in male AMIs and a non-significant step-increase in female AMIs post-2013. Those 65 years and older experienced a greater decline to the postlegislation 2013 trend (ß=-5.9, 95% CI -8.7 to -3.1) compared with those younger (ß=-0.4, 95% CI -0.6 to -0.2), while an estimated 19 591 (15 711 to 23472) additional AMI cases in those 65 years and above may have occurred without the extension. We found a step-increase in monthly AMI incidence post-2016 (ß=14.2, 95%CI 3.3 to 25.0). CONCLUSION: The 2013 smoke-free law extension to residential estates and other outdoor areas were associated with a decline in AMIs and those above the age of 65 years and men appeared to be major beneficiaries. Additional epidemiological evidence is required to support the expanded smoke-free legislation to parks, educational institutions, buses and taxis.

Field trial assessing the antimicrobial decontamination efficacy of gaseous ozone in a public bus setting.

The widespread COVID-19 pandemic caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) necessitated measures aimed at preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2. To mitigate the risk of fomite-mediated transmission, environmental cleaning and disinfection regimes have been widely implemented. However, conventional cleaning approaches such as surface wipe downs can be laborious and more efficient and effective disinfecting technologies are needed. Gaseous ozone disinfection is one technology which has been shown to be effective in laboratory studies. Here, we evaluated its efficacy and feasibility in a public bus setting, using murine hepatitis virus (a related betacoronavirus surrogate) and the bacteria Staphylococcus aureus as test organisms. An optimal gaseous ozone regime resulted in a 3.65-log reduction of murine hepatitis virus and a 4.73-log reduction of S. aureus, and decontamination efficacy correlated with exposure duration and relative humidity in the application space. These findings demonstrated gaseous ozone disinfection in field settings which can be suitably translated to public and private fleets that share analogous characteristics.

Clustering of Environmental Parameters and the Risk of Acute Ischaemic Stroke.

Acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) risk on days with similar environmental profiles remains unknown. We investigated the association between clusters of days with similar environmental parameters and AIS incidence in Singapore. We grouped calendar days from 2010 to 2015 with similar rainfall, temperature, wind speed, and Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) using k-means clustering. Three distinct clusters were formed 'Cluster 1' containing high wind speed, 'Cluster 2' having high rainfall, and 'Cluster 3' having high temperatures and PSI. We aggregated the number of AIS episodes over the same period with the clusters and analysed their association using a conditional Poisson regression in a time-stratified case-crossover design. Comparing the three clusters, Cluster 3 had the highest AIS occurrence (IRR 1.09; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.13), with no significant difference between Clusters 1 and 2. Subgroup analyses in Cluster 3 showed that AIS risk was amplified in the elderly (≥65 years old), non-smokers, and those without a history of ischaemic heart disease/atrial fibrillation/vascular heart disease/peripheral vascular disease. In conclusion, we found that AIS incidence may be higher on days with higher temperatures and PSI. These findings have important public health implications for AIS prevention and health services delivery during at-risk days, such as during the seasonal transboundary haze.

Rodent activity in municipal waste collection premises in Singapore: an analysis of risk factors using mixed-effects modelling.

Refuse storage and collection systems are potential sources of food and harbourage areas for rodents which transmit pathogens. We examined the factors associated with rodent activity in public housing municipal waste collection premises in a highly urbanized city-state. We analysed data from April 2019 to March 2020 in mixed-effects logistic regression models to examine the independent factors associated with rodent activity in central refuse chute rooms (CRCs), individual refuse chute (IRC) bin chambers and bin centres. We accounted for within-year patterns, repeated measures and nested effects. We observed a heterogeneous spatial distribution of rodent activity. Rodent droppings were strongly associated with rodent activity in CRCs (aOR: 6.20, 95% CI: 4.20-9.15), bin centres (aOR: 3.61, 95% CI: 1.70-7.64) and IRC bin chambers (aOR: 90.84, 95% CI: 70.13-117.67). Gnaw marks were positively associated with rodent activity in CRCs (aOR: 5.61, 95% CI: 3.55-8.97) and IRC bin chambers (aOR: 2.05, 95% CI: 1.43-2.95), as were rub marks in CRCs (aOR: 5.04, 95% CI: 3.44-7.37) and IRC bin chambers (aOR: 3.07, 95% CI: 1.74-5.42). Each burrow increased the odds of rodent sightings in bin centres (aOR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00-1.06). The odds of rodent sightings in an IRC bin chamber increased with every additional bin chute chamber within the same block (aOR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01-1.07). We identified several factors that well predicted rodent activity in waste collection premises. Municipal estate managers with limited resources can adopt a risk-based approach in tailoring the focus of their rodent control interventions.

Air quality, meteorological variability and pediatric respiratory syncytial virus infections in Singapore.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important cause of respiratory illness among children. While studies have focused on the air-quality and climate dependence of RSV infections, few have been undertaken in South-East Asia where the burden of respiratory illness is among the highest across the globe. This study aimed to determine the relationships between climatic factors and air quality with RSV infections among children in Singapore. We obtained all laboratory-confirmed reports of RSV infections in children below 5 years old from the largest public hospital specializing in pediatric healthcare in Singapore. We assessed the independent cumulative effects of air quality and meteorological factors on RSV infection risk using the Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model (DLNM) framework in negative binomial models adjusted for long-term trend, seasonality and changes in the diagnostic systems. We included 15,715 laboratory-confirmed RSV reports from 2009 to 2019. Daily maximum temperature exhibited a complex, non-linear association with RSV infections. Absolute humidity (Relative Risk, 90th percentile [RR90th percentile]: 1.170, 95% CI: [1.102, 1.242]) was positively associated with RSV risk. Higher levels of particulate matter of aerodynamic diameter of less than (i) 2.5 µm (PM2.5), (ii) 10 µm (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) were associated with lower RSV infection risk. RSV infections exhibited both annual and within-year seasonality. Our findings suggest that falls in ambient temperature and rises in absolute humidity exacerbated pediatric RSV infection risk while increases in air pollutant concentrations were associated with lowered infection risk. These meteorological factors, together with the predictable seasonality of RSV infections, can inform the timing of mitigation measures aimed at reducing transmission.

The application of environmental management methods in combating dengue: a systematic review.

Among several vector control methods commonly used, environmental management is one of the control measures to mitigate dengue in such vulnerable communities. Since there is no curative treatment for dengue yet, targeted environmental and ecosystem management is increasingly relevant. Hence, this review was conducted to identify the effectiveness of environmental management intervention strategy to reduce dengue cases. We searched PUBMED, CENTRAL, SCOPUS, Web of Science, CIJE, WHO ICTRP, and ClinicalTrials.gov up to January 2021. A total of 521 articles were screened. Only 16 studies were included in this review. There were 6 studies that applied all three types of environmental management interventions (manipulation, modification and behavior), 8 studies applied two types of interventions (manipulation and behavior) and 2 studies applied one type of intervention (manipulation or behavior). All included studies reported reduction of Aedes entomological indices. The studies showed reduction in dengue cases and density of Aedes population through environmental interventions. It is recommended for the health authority to incorporate environmental management intervention in dengue control activities and enhanced the community involvement to ensure sustainability with high impact on dengue reduction.

The influence of air quality and meteorological variations on influenza A and B virus infections in a paediatric population in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: Influenza is an important cause of paediatric illness across the globe. However, information about the relationships between air pollution, meteorological variability and paediatric influenza A and B infections in tropical settings is limited. METHODS: We analysed all daily reports of influenza A and B infections in children <5 years old obtained from the largest specialist women and children's hospital in Singapore. In separate negative binomial regression models, we assessed the dependence of paediatric influenza A and B infections on air quality and meteorological variability, using multivariable fractional polynomial modelling and adjusting for time-varying confounders. RESULTS: Approximately 80% of 7329 laboratory-confirmed reports were caused by influenza A. We observed positive associations between sulphur dioxide (SO2) exposure and the subsequent risk of infection with both influenza types. We observed evidence of a harvesting effect of SO2 on Influenza A but not Influenza B. Ambient temperature was associated with a decline in influenza A reports (Relative Risk at lag 5 [RRlag5]: 0.949, 95% CI: 0.916-0.983). Rainfall was positively associated with a subsequent increase in influenza A reports (RRlag3: 1.044, 95% CI: 1.017-1.071). Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentration was positively associated with influenza B reports (RRlag5: 1.015, 95% CI: 1.005-1.025). There was a non-linear association between CO and influenza B reports. Absolute humidity increased the ensuing risk of influenza B (RRlag5: 4.799, 95% CI: 2.277-10.118). Influenza A and B infections displayed dissimilar but predictable within-year seasonal patterns. CONCLUSIONS: We observed different independent associations between air quality and meteorological variability with paediatric influenza A and B infections. Anticipated seasonal infection peaks and variations in air quality and meteorological parameters can inform the timing of community measures aimed at reducing influenza infection risk.

Air quality and the risk of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Singapore (PAROS): a time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported positive associations between out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and air pollutant concentrations, but there are inconsistencies across studies. We aimed to investigate the association between pollutant concentrations and the risk of OHCA in Singapore. METHODS: We did a time series analysis of all cases of OHCA in Singapore reported between July 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2018, to the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study (PAROS), a prospective, population-based registry. Using multivariable fractional polynomial modelling, we investigated the immediate (day 0) and lagged (up to 5 days after exposure) association between 10 µg/m3 increases in concentrations of particulate matter with a diameter of 2·5 µm or smaller (PM2·5), particulate matter with a diameter of 10 µm or smaller (PM10), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulphur dioxide (SO2) and 1 mg/m3 increase in carbon monoxide (CO) and relative risk (RR) of OHCA. FINDINGS: We extracted data for 18 131 cases of OHCA. The median age of this cohort of cases was 65 years (IQR 56-80), 6484 (35·8%) were female, 11 647 (64·2%) were male, 12 270 (67·7%) were Chinese, 2873 (15·8%) were Malay, and 2010 (11·1%) were Indian. Every 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of OHCA (RR 1·022 [95% 1·002-1·043]) over the next 2 days, which decreased over the subsequent 3 days (3-5 days after exposure; 0·976 [0·955-0·998]). For PM10, O3, NO2, and SO2, we did not observe any associations between increased concentration and risk of OHCA on day 0 or cumulative risk over time (ie, at 0-1 days, 0-2 days, 0-3 days, 0-4 days, 0-5 days, and 3-5 days after exposure). For CO, we observed a cumulative decreased risk of OHCA across 0-5 days after exposure (0·876 [0·770-0·997]) and at days 3-5 after exposure (0·810 [0·690-0·949]). We observed effect modification of the association between increasing PM2·5 concentration and OHCA 0-2 days after exposure by cardiac arrest rhythm (non-shockable 1·027 [1·004-1·050] vs shockable 1·002 [0·956-1·051]) and location of OHCA (at home: 1·033 [1·008-1·057] vs not at home 0·955 [0·957-1·035]). In hypothetical modelling, the number of OHCA events associated with PM2·5 could be reduced by 8% with a 1 µg/m3 decrease in PM2·5 concentrations and by 30% with a 3 µg/m3 decrease in PM2·5 concentrations. INTERPRETATION: Increases in PM2·5 concentration were associated with an initial increased risk of OHCA and a subsequent reduced risk from 3-5 days after exposure, suggesting a short-term harvesting effect. A decrease in PM2·5 concentrations could reduce population demand for emergency health services. FUNDING: National Medical Research Council, Singapore, under the Clinician Scientist Award, Singapore and the Singapore Translational Research Investigator Award (MOH-000982-01).

Ambient Air Quality and Emergency Hospital Admissions in Singapore: A Time-Series Analysis.

Air pollution exposure may increase the demand for emergency healthcare services, particularly in South-East Asia, where the burden of air-pollution-related health impacts is high. This article aims to investigate the association between air quality and emergency hospital admissions in Singapore. Quasi-Poisson regression was applied with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to assess the short-term associations between air quality variations and all-cause, emergency admissions from a major hospital in Singapore, between 2009 and 2017. Higher concentrations of SO2, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and CO were positively associated with an increased risk of (i) all-cause, (ii) cardiovascular-related, and (iii) respiratory-related emergency admissions over 7 days. O3 concentration increases were associated with a non-linear decrease in emergency admissions. Females experienced a higher risk of emergency admissions associated with PM2.5, PM10, and CO exposure, and a lower risk of admissions with NO2 exposure, compared to males. The older adults (≥65 years) experienced a higher risk of emergency admissions associated with SO2 and O3 exposure compared to the non-elderly group. We found significant positive associations between respiratory disease- and cardiovascular disease-related emergency hospital admissions and ambient SO2, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and CO concentrations. Age and gender were identified as effect modifiers of all-cause admissions.

Ambient Air Pollution and Acute Ischemic Stroke-Effect Modification by Atrial Fibrillation.

Acute ischemic strokes (AIS) are closely linked with air pollution, and there is some evidence that traditional cardiovascular risk factors may alter the relationship between air pollution and strokes. We investigated the effect of atrial fibrillation (AF) on the association of AIS with air pollutants. This was a nationwide, population-based, case-only study that included all AIS treated in public healthcare institutions in Singapore from 2009 to 2018. Using multivariable logistic regression, adjusted for time-varying meteorological effects, we examined how AF modified the association between AIS and air pollutant exposure. A total of 51,673 episodes of AIS were included, with 10,722 (20.7%) having AF. The odds of AIS in patients with AF is higher than those without AF for every 1 µg/m3 increase in O3 concentration (adjusted OR [aOR]: 1.005, 95% CI 1.003-1.007) and every 1 mg/m3 increase in CO concentration (aOR: 1.193, 95% CI 1.050-1.356). However, the odds of AIS in patients with AF is lower than those without AF for every 1 µg/m3 increase in SO2 concentration (aOR: 0.993, 95% CI 0.990-0.997). Higher odds of AIS among AF patients as O3- and CO concentrations increase are also observed in patients aged ≥65 years and non-smokers. The results suggest that AF plays an important role in exacerbating the risk of AIS as the levels of O3 and CO increase.

Ambient temperature and hospital admissions for non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction in the tropics.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial infarction is an important cause of cardiovascular mortality and can be precipitated by climatic factors. The temperature dependence of myocardial infarction risk has been well examined in temperate settings. Fewer studies have investigated this in the tropics where thermal amplitudes are narrower. This study investigated how ambient temperature influenced the risk of non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), an increasingly common type of myocardial infarction, in the tropical city-state of Singapore. METHODS: All nationally reported NSTEMI cases from 2009 to 2018 were included and assessed for its short-term association with ambient temperature using conditional Poisson regression models that comprised a three-way interaction term with year, month and day of the week and adjusted for relative humidity. The Distributed Lag Non-Linear Modelling (DLNM) was used to account for the immediate and lagged effects of environmental exposures. Stratified analysis by sex and age groups was undertaken to assess potential effect modification. RESULTS: There were 60,643 reports of NSTEMI. Temperature decline (cool effect) was associated with a delayed cumulative, non-linear increase in NSTEMI risk over 10 days post exposure [Relative Risk (RRlag0-10, 10th percentile: 1.12, 95%CI: 1.02-1.24)]. Those aged 65 years and above were potentially more susceptible (RR lag0-10, 10th percentile: 1.19, 95 % CI: 1.06-1.33) to the cool effect compared to those below that age (RRlag0-10, 10th percentile: 1.00, 95 % CI: 0.85-1.18) (p-value for difference = 0.087). CONCLUSION: Short-term temperature fluctuations were independently associated with NSTEMI incidence in the tropics, with age as a potential effect modifier of this association. An increase in the frequency of climate change driven temperature events may trigger more instances of NSTEMI in tropical cosmopolitan cities.

Association of air pollution with acute ischemic stroke risk in Singapore: a time-stratified case-crossover study.

BACKGROUND: Air quality is an important determinant of cardiovascular health such as ischemic heart disease and acute ischemic stroke (AIS) with substantial mortality and morbidity reported across the globe. However, associations between air quality and AIS in the current literature remain inconsistent, with few studies undertaken in cosmopolitan cities located in the tropics. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the associations between individual ambient air pollutants and AIS. METHODS: We performed a nationwide, population-based, time-stratified case-crossover analysis on all AIS cases reported to the Singapore Stroke Registry from 2009 to 2018. We estimated the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of AIS across different concentrations of each pollutant by quartiles (referencing the 25th percentile), in single-pollutant conditional Poisson models adjusted for time-varying meteorological effects. We stratified our analysis by predetermined subgroups deemed at higher risk. RESULTS: A total of 51,675 episodes of AIS were included. Ozone (O3) (IRR4th quartile: 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.08) and carbon monoxide (CO) (IRR2nd quartile: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02-1.08, IRR3rd quartile: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.10, IRR4th quartile: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.11) were positively associated with AIS incidence. The increased incidence of AIS due to O3 and CO persisted for 5 days after exposure. Those under 65 years of age were more likely to experience AIS when exposed to CO. Individuals with atrial fibrillation (AF) were more susceptible to exposure from O3, CO, and PM10. Current/ex-smokers were more vulnerable to the effect of O3. CONCLUSION: Air pollution increases the incidence of AIS, especially in those with AF and in those who are current or ex-smokers.

The use of anticoagulants for rodent control in a mixed-use urban environmefent in Singapore: A controlled interrupted time series analysis.

Vector control remains an important strategy in preventing rodent-borne diseases. Studies quantifying the impact of anticoagulant bait use on rodent populations are scarce in tropical settings. This study examined the impact of anticoagulant bait use on three measures of rodent activity in Singapore to inform rodent-borne disease control strategies. Using a controlled interrupted time-series analytical design with negative binomial and linear regression models, the average rodent activity levels were compared in the pre- and post-intervention periods. There was a 62.7% (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR): 0.373, 95% CI: [0.224, 0.620]) reduction in the number of rodents caught, a 25.8-unit (coefficient = -25.829, 95% CI: [-29.855, -21.804]) reduction in the number of 30 g/unit baits consumed and a 61.9% (IRR: 0.381, 95% CI: [0.218, 0.665]) reduction in the number of marred bait stations relative to the pre-intervention period. There was a rise in all three outcome measures within four months after the post-intervention period. This study provided strong evidence that anticoagulant baits substantially reduces rodent activity. The population resurgence after the post-intervention period reinforces the importance of timing the resumption of control measures aimed at reducing rodent-borne disease transmission.

VKORC1 mutations in rodent populations of a tropical city-state as an indicator of anticoagulant rodenticide resistance.

Anticoagulant rodenticides are commonly used in rodent control because they are economical and have great deployment versatility. However, rodents with Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) mutations within the Vkorc1 gene are resistant to the effects of anticoagulant rodenticide use and this influences the effectiveness of control strategies that rely on such rodenticides. This study examined the prevalence of rat SNP mutations in Singapore to inform the effectiveness of anticoagulant rodenticide use. A total of 130 rat tail samples, comprising 83 Rattus norvegicus (63.8%) and 47 Rattus rattus complex (36.2%) were conveniently sampled from November 2016 to December 2019 from urban settings and sequenced at exon 3 of Vkorc1. Sequencing analysis revealed 4 synonymous and 1 non-synonymous mutations in Rattus rattus complex samples. A novel synonymous mutation of L108L was identified and not previously reported in other studies. Non-synonymous SNPs were not detected in the notable codons of 120, 128 and 139 in R. norvegicus, where these regions are internationally recognised to be associated with resistance from prior studies. Our findings suggest that the prevalence of anticoagulant rodenticide resistance in Singapore is low. Continued monitoring of rodenticide resistance is important for informing rodent control strategies aimed at reducing rodent-borne disease transmission.

Association of ambient air pollution with risk of hemorrhagic stroke: A time-stratified case crossover analysis of the Singapore stroke registry.

BACKGROUND: Haemorrhagic stroke (HS) is a major cause of mortality and disability. Previous studies reported inconsistent associations between ambient air pollutants and HS risk. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the association between air pollutant exposure and the risk of HS in a cosmopolitan city in the tropics. METHODS: We performed a nationwide, population-based, time-stratified case-crossover analysis on all HS cases reported to the Singapore Stroke Registry from 2009 to 2018 (n = 12,636). We estimated the risk of HS across tertiles of air pollutant concentrations in conditional Poisson models, adjusting for meteorological confounders. We stratified our analysis by age, atrial fibrillation and smoking status, and investigated the lagged effects of each pollutant on the risk of HS up to 5 days. RESULTS: All 12,636 episodes of HS were included. The median (1st-to 3rd-quartile) daily pollutant levels from 22 remote stations deployed across the island were as follows: (PM2.5 = 15.9 (12.7-20.5), PM10 = 27.3 (22.7-33.4), O3 = 22.5 (17.3-29.8), NO2 = 23.3 (18.8-28.4), SO2 = 10.2 (5.6-14.4), CO = 0.5 (0.5-0.6). The median (1st-to 3rd-quartile) temperature (°C) was 27.9 (27.1-28.7), that of relative humidity (%) was 79.4 (75.6-83.2), and that of total rainfall (mm) was 0.0 (0.0-4.2). Higher levels of CO were significantly associated with an increased risk of HS (3rd tertile vs 1st tertile: Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.01-1.12). The increased risk of HS due to CO persisted for at least 5 days after exposure. Individuals under 65 years old and non-smokers had a higher risk of HS when exposed to CO. O3 was associated with increased risk of HS up to 5 days (3rd tertile vs 1st tertile: IRRday 1 = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.02-1.12; IRRday 5 = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.02-1.13). CONCLUSION: Short-term exposure to ambient CO levels was associated with an increased risk of HS. A reduction in CO emissions may reduce the burden of HS in the population.

Climate variability and seasonal patterns of paediatric parainfluenza infections in the tropics: An ecological study in Singapore.

OBJECTIVES: Evidence of the relationship between climate variability, air pollution and human parainfluenza virus (HPIV) infections has been inconsistent. We assessed this in a paediatric population from a highly urbanized tropical city-state. METHODS: We analysed all reports of HPIV infections in children <5 years old obtained from a major specialist women and children's hospital in Singapore. Assuming a negative binomial distribution and using multivariable fractional polynomial modelling, we examined the relations between climate variability, air quality and the risk of HPIV infections, adjusting for time-varying confounders. RESULTS: We identified 6393 laboratory-confirmed HPIV infections from 2009 to 2019. Every 1 °C decline in temperature was associated with a 5.8% increase (RR: 0.943, 95% Confidence Interval [95% CI]: 0.903-0.984) in HPIV infection risk 6 days later. Every 10% decrease in relative humidity was associated with a 15.8% cumulative increase in HPIV risk over the next 6 days (cumulative RR: 0.842, 95% CI: 0.771-0.919). Rainfall was positively associated with HPIV risk 2 days later (RR: 1.021, 95% CI: 1.000-1.043). A within-year seasonal rise of HPIV was driven by HPIV-3 and HPIV-1 and preceded by a seasonal decline in temperature. Gender was an effect modifier of the climate-HPIV relationship. Air quality was not associated with HPIV risk. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates a close association between HPIV infection risk and tropical climate variability. The climate dependence and seasonal predictability of HPIV can inform the timing of community campaigns aimed at reducing infection risk and the development of hospital resources and climate adaption plans.

Short Report: Adult Aedes abundance and risk of dengue transmission.

Dengue is transmitted mainly by the adult female Aedes aegypti mosquito. However, little is known about the impact of adult Aedes abundance on the risk of dengue transmission. Here we analysed nationally representative dengue case and vector surveillance data collected from Singapore, to determine the effect of adult Aedes abundance on the risk of dengue transmission. A case was an area with active dengue transmission as indicated by the presence of dengue cluster. A control was an area where no dengue cluster was reported. Using multivariate logistic regression, we analysed 88 cases and 602 controls and estimated the odds of dengue cluster formation at various adult Aedes abundance levels, estimated by the mean number of adult female Aedes per Gravitrap per week and categorised into Low, Moderate, High and Very High abundance level. We found that the risk of dengue cluster formation was positively associated with adult Ae. aegypti abundance. We observed a three to four-fold increase in the odds of dengue clusters forming in areas with High (AOR: 3.40, 95% CI: 2.09, 5.52) and Very High (AOR: 3.99, 95% CI: 2.46, 6.46) adult Aedes aegypti abundance level compared to those with low Ae. aegypti abundance level. Our study strengthens the evidence for the use of adult Aedes indices for dengue risk assessment and early warning for dengue outbreaks. Entomological indicators of adult Ae. aegypti could be used to anticipate and prioritize areas for dengue control.

A time series analysis of the short-term association between climatic variables and acute respiratory infections in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are among the most common human illnesses globally. Previous studies that examined the associations between climate variability and ARIs or ARI pathogens have reported inconsistent findings. Few studies have been conducted in Southeast Asia to date, and the impact of climatic factors are not well-understood. This study aimed to investigate the short-term associations between climate variability and ARIs in Singapore. METHODS: We obtained reports of ARIs from all government primary healthcare services from 2005 to 2019 and analysed their dependence on mean ambient temperature, minimum temperature and maximum temperature using the distributed lag non-linear framework. Separate negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the association between each temperature (mean, minimum, maximum temperature) and ARIs, adjusted for seasonality and long-term trend, rainfall, relative humidity, public holidays and autocorrelations. For temperature variables and relative humidity we reported cumulative relative risks (RRs) at 10th and 90th percentiles compared to the reference value (centered at their medians) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). For rainfall we reported RRs at 50th and 90th percentiles compared to 0 mm with corresponding 95% CIs. RESULTS: Statistically significant inverse S-curve shaped associations were observed between all three temperature variables (mean, minimum, maximum) and ARIs. A decrease of 1.1 °C from the median value of 27.8 °C to 26.7 °C (10th percentile) in the mean temperature was associated with a 6% increase (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.09) in ARIs. ARIs also increased at 23.9 °C (10th percentile) compared to 24.9 °C of minimum temperature (RR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.16). The effect of maximum temperature for the same comparison (30.5 °C vs 31.7 °C) was non-significant (RR: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.05). An increase in ambient temperature to 28.9 °C (90th percentile) was associated with an 18% decrease (RR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.80 to 0.83) in ARIs. Similarly, ARIs decreased with the same increase to 90th percentile in minimum (RR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.80 to 0.87) and maximum (RR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.86 to 0.93) temperatures. Rainfall was inversely associated with ARIs and displayed similar shape in all three temperature models. Relative humidity, on the other hand, exhibited a U-shaped relationship with ARIs. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that lower temperatures increase the risk of ARIs. Anticipated extreme weather events that reduce ambient temperature can be used to inform increased healthcare resource allocation for ARIs.